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Strips higher but still too much priced, particularly for SONIA

STIR FUTURES

After further sanctions have been placed on Russia over the weekend (including barring Russian banks from SWIFT) risk concerns have been the driver of STIR markets trhough the Asian session and in early European trading.

  • The Eurodollar strip has seen the biggest moves, up to 11 ticks through the Reds while the SONIA and Euribor strips are both up to 6 ticks higher.
  • In spite of this, changes to last Monday's close are relatively minimal outside of the SONIA and Euribor Whites / early SONIA Reds.
  • With this in mind, we particularly think that there looks too much priced into the SONIA strip this year, with both the geopolitical backdrop, upcoming NI rise and increases in costs of living likely to see BOE hikes front loaded, but slowing in H2.

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