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Strong January Inflation Numbers Could Result in Another CBR Hike, Goldman Sachs Say

RUSSIA
  • Significant base effects in administrated utility prices from their reindexation in December 2022 brought down the headline year-on-year service inflation print, but beyond this, price pressures continue to be high, Goldman Sachs write in a note.
  • Labour markets continue to be tight, inflation expectations elevated and the output gap large enough that despite the tightening, inflation will remain relatively sticky in 2024, in Goldman Sachs's view.
  • While their base case is that the CBR will keep rates on hold at the next rate-setting meeting, they note that risks are tilted to the upside as they can see the CBR delivering another hike if the January inflation numbers come in strong.
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