Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Right-wing libertarian Javier Milei secured a strong result in Argentina's PASO presidential primaries on 13 August, exceeding his suggested support in opinion polls substantially to emerge with 31.6% of the vote with almost all ballots counted. Milei's poll-topping performance comes at the expense of both the governing Peronist alliance but also the main opposition conservative bloc, both of whom have faced public anger amid triple-digit inflation.
- Milei, who has advocated for the dollarisation of the Argentinian economy and the closure of the central bank now goes into the 22 October first round with significant momentum. The PASO primaries saw former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich selected as the candidate for the conservative Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) alliance. However, the bloc as a whole won just 28.3% of the vote, well below pre-PASO expectations.
- The performance of the governing Peronist Union por la Patria (UP) coalition was relatively poor, coming in third place overall with 27.3% of the vote. However, given that expectations were very low ahead of the vote, coming within 1% of the JxC will give the incumbent's hope that their candidate, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, could sneak into a second-round run off against Milei and retain the presidency as voters opt for the moderate Massa rather than firebrand Milei.
- A Milei or Bullrich presidency could single Argentina out within LatAm. Over the past two years, many nations that had right-leaning presidents have recorded a shift to the left (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru) while Argentina was already under left-wing Peronist governance. With Milei topping the PASO and Bullrich set to contest the first round, the country could find itself as a right-wing outlier following the October first round or November run-off.
Chart 1. PASO Results and Average of July Opinion Polling, %
Source: resultados.gob.ar, Management & Fit, CEOP, Federico Gonzalez & Assoc., Atlas Intel, Opinia, University of La Matanza, Tacquion, Opnia Argentina, Zuban Cordoba & Assoc., Clivajes Consultoes, Observatorio Electoral Consultores, Analogias, Proyeccion Consoltores, CB Consoltora, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.