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Strong Monday Gains, PMIs On Tap Today, Onshore Markets Closed Wed-Fri

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Spot USD/CNH dipped under 7.2350 by US trade on Monday. We stabilized somewhat and track around 7.2430 in early Tuesday trade. CNH was up 0.34% for Monday's session, it's best gain since January. USD/CNY also fell sharply, the pair back under 7.2300 (up 0.24% in CNY terms). This was onshore spot's strongest gain since late last year, and took the pair away from the upper daily trading limit.

  • Interestingly though, the onshore close which feeds into the CNY fixing was still elevated at 7.2467. The fixing estimate should still be lower given broad USD weakness for Monday's session. A relatively steady fixing outcome (yesterday's outcome was 7.1066) might see USD/CNH dips supported.
  • USD/CNH tested just under the 50-day EMA (around 7.2375/80) in Monday trade but couldn't sustain it. Note the 20-day EMA sits higher, back in the 7.2515/20 region.
  • Today is the onshore markets last trading session for this week, with markets returning next Monday the 6th of May after the Labor day holiday period.
  • We have the official PMI prints for April today, along with the Caixin manufacturing PMI. The official manufacturing result is projected at 50.3 (prior 50.8). Non-manufacturing is forecast at 52.3 (prior 53.0). The Caixin manufacturing PMI is forecast at 51.0 (prior 51.1).
  • We could also get headlines crossing from China's April Politburo meeting over the next day or so.
  • We also saw further strong inflows into China stocks via the stock connect yesterday (see this link). China to the rest of the world global equities continue to track higher.
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Spot USD/CNH dipped under 7.2350 by US trade on Monday. We stabilized somewhat and track around 7.2430 in early Tuesday trade. CNH was up 0.34% for Monday's session, it's best gain since January. USD/CNY also fell sharply, the pair back under 7.2300 (up 0.24% in CNY terms). This was onshore spot's strongest gain since late last year, and took the pair away from the upper daily trading limit.

  • Interestingly though, the onshore close which feeds into the CNY fixing was still elevated at 7.2467. The fixing estimate should still be lower given broad USD weakness for Monday's session. A relatively steady fixing outcome (yesterday's outcome was 7.1066) might see USD/CNH dips supported.
  • USD/CNH tested just under the 50-day EMA (around 7.2375/80) in Monday trade but couldn't sustain it. Note the 20-day EMA sits higher, back in the 7.2515/20 region.
  • Today is the onshore markets last trading session for this week, with markets returning next Monday the 6th of May after the Labor day holiday period.
  • We have the official PMI prints for April today, along with the Caixin manufacturing PMI. The official manufacturing result is projected at 50.3 (prior 50.8). Non-manufacturing is forecast at 52.3 (prior 53.0). The Caixin manufacturing PMI is forecast at 51.0 (prior 51.1).
  • We could also get headlines crossing from China's April Politburo meeting over the next day or so.
  • We also saw further strong inflows into China stocks via the stock connect yesterday (see this link). China to the rest of the world global equities continue to track higher.