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Inflation Concerns Underpin Bear Steepening


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Firm Within Its Bull Channel

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Latest regional polling in select areas of England hints at a potentially strong set of results for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives ahead of the 6 May local and regional elections in England.

    • Hartlepool, constituency voting intention: CON: 50% (+1), LAB: 33% (-9), IND (Walker): 6% (+4), IND (Lee): 6% (+6), GRN: 3% (+2), REFUK: 1% (-). via @Survation, 23 - 29 Apr. Chgs. w/ 03 Apr
    • West Midlands Mayoral Voting Intent: Street (CON): 54% (+12), Byrne (LAB): 37% (-4), Caudwell (GRN): 4% (-1), Durnell (RFM): 3% (+3), Wilkinson (LDM): 3% (-3). Via @ OpiniumResearch , 19-26 Apr. Changes w / 2017.
    • Tees Valley Mayoral Voting Intent: Houchen (CON): 63% (+23), Jacobs (LAB): 37% (-2). Via @ OpiniumResearch , 19-26 Apr. Changes w / 2017.
  • The West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoralties have both been held by the Conservatives since 2017, with those wins over the centre-left Labour Party seen as shocks at the time. If the respective mayors can retain control in these two historically Labour voting areas it will act as a notable boost to the PM's party.
  • The only parliamentary by-election to take place on 6 May in Hartlepool also looks likely to provide a boost to the PM after a difficult week for the gov't following claims from opposition figures of 'sleaze' within the Johnson gov't. The Hartlepool constituency in NE England has been held by Labour since its creation in 1974.
  • A note of caution should be sounded on the polls though. The Hartlepool poll was only carried out with 301 respondents, meaning a wide margin of error. Meanwhile, the fieldwork for the two mayoral polls took place several days ago, before some national level polls began to show a sharp decline in support for the Conservatives amidst the 'sleaze' allegations against Johnson.