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Stronger House Prices Helps Fed Rates Revert Near Friday Levels

STIR
  • Stronger than expected house price growth has helped continue to unwind the earlier softening after spillover from weaker than expected Spanish inflation, leaving implied rates little changed from Friday’s close, led by terminal pricing slightly higher.
  • Of note, Fed Funds implied rates are back to pricing more than 50% likelihood of a June hike (+16bps) and fully pricing a July hike (cumulative +26.5bps), with 34bps of cuts from the implied terminal to an effective 5.00% by year-end (i.e. just 8bps of cumulative cuts from current levels) – see table below for broader strip.

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