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Suedzuker (SZUGR Snr Unsec; Baa2/BBB) Profit warning

CONSUMER STAPLES
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Cash is little changed. 1Q earnings tomorrow but we already know FY guidance will be unch based on today - arguably leaves less event risk. Curve is rich and no views on the (ancient) floating perps. Double rating upgrades heading into a rough year makes pre-emptively issuing for the Nov 25s or to refi out the perps attractive here - latter may be a tough ask given the equity treatment it gets.

  • The European sugar focused producer has given a profit warning for 2Q results (ending August) saying it will be a "significant decline" yoy. 1Q results (to May) come tomorrow morning and removing some risk it has reaffirmed FY guidance for revenue €10-10.5b, EBITDA 0.9-1b and EBIT 0.5-0.6b. Consensus is sitting at midpoint of those ranges.
  • It had 1-notch upgrades from S&P and Moody's recently, spike in sugar prices {ECAGSUGA Index} has helped it continue a now 5yrs of double-digit EBITDA growth . There are other drivers for it including ethanol prices (10% of revenue) and starch (10%). It's also exposed to input costs from grain and on weather impacting crops.
  • It runs €2.2b gross and €1.8b net debt which on FY25 consensus EBITDA (-28%yoy) will leave it 2.3x/1.9x levered - some rise seems anticipated by agencies already, co targets IG ratings.
  • Snr unsecured are at 25 (Z+24) and 27s (Z+67) - neither show any value. Floating perp (Ba3/BB-) that is well past first call date in 2015 is giving 3m+310 (~7%). No view on it it noting it still receives 50% equity treatment from Moody's.

Presser and equity takes.
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Cash is little changed. 1Q earnings tomorrow but we already know FY guidance will be unch based on today - arguably leaves less event risk. Curve is rich and no views on the (ancient) floating perps. Double rating upgrades heading into a rough year makes pre-emptively issuing for the Nov 25s or to refi out the perps attractive here - latter may be a tough ask given the equity treatment it gets.

  • The European sugar focused producer has given a profit warning for 2Q results (ending August) saying it will be a "significant decline" yoy. 1Q results (to May) come tomorrow morning and removing some risk it has reaffirmed FY guidance for revenue €10-10.5b, EBITDA 0.9-1b and EBIT 0.5-0.6b. Consensus is sitting at midpoint of those ranges.
  • It had 1-notch upgrades from S&P and Moody's recently, spike in sugar prices {ECAGSUGA Index} has helped it continue a now 5yrs of double-digit EBITDA growth . There are other drivers for it including ethanol prices (10% of revenue) and starch (10%). It's also exposed to input costs from grain and on weather impacting crops.
  • It runs €2.2b gross and €1.8b net debt which on FY25 consensus EBITDA (-28%yoy) will leave it 2.3x/1.9x levered - some rise seems anticipated by agencies already, co targets IG ratings.
  • Snr unsecured are at 25 (Z+24) and 27s (Z+67) - neither show any value. Floating perp (Ba3/BB-) that is well past first call date in 2015 is giving 3m+310 (~7%). No view on it it noting it still receives 50% equity treatment from Moody's.

Presser and equity takes.