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Summary – April 15

LATAM
  • Peru economic activity data for February will cross today, with analysts expecting growth to edge up to +2.1% y/y. Peru March unemployment data will also be released, while in Colombia February industrial production and retail sales figures will be published, alongside the latest BanRep economist survey. In Brazil, weekly trade balance data will cross. Elsewhere, US retail sales mark the highlight Monday, with consensus looking for retail sales to slow to 0.4% from 0.6% previously. Empire manufacturing is also due, as well as speeches from ECB's Lane and de Cos as well as Fed's Williams.
  • Markets trade solidly despite the uptick in geopolitical tensions over the weekend and the direct Iranian attack on Israeli soil that drew support from US, British and French military assets. Haven currencies have found no support, with USD/JPY instead reverting higher - putting JPY lower against all others in G10.
  • Global News:
    • ISRAEL (MNI) – Wires reporting that the Israeli army has presented the government with a list of possible responses to the Iranian drone/missile strikes on Israeli territory over the weekend. The list comes after a meeting of the Israeli war cabinet on14 April at which reports that no decision was made, although the ministers are seen to be leaning closer to retaliation than non-retaliation.
    • ISRAEL / IRAN – French President Emmanuel Macron urged Israel to respond to Iran’s attack over the weekend in “a calibrated manner” to avoid an escalation in the hostilities. “We’re going to do everything we can to avoid flare-ups, in other words, escalation, and try to convince Israel that we shouldn’t respond by escalating, but rather by isolating Iran.”
    • ECB – ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said borrowing costs will decline this year, predicting at least three such moves. “I see a higher than 50% chance there will be more than three cuts this year,” Simkus told reporters in Vilnius. “I see a higher than zero chance that an interest rate cut may follow also in July. The July decision will be important in setting the trajectory.”
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