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Summary – April 30

LATAM
  • The focus on Tuesday turns to the BanRep MPC meeting, with analysts expecting the central bank to deliver another 50bp cut to 11.75%. In Brazil, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey, followed by March unemployment data, while Mexico will release Q1 GDP figures and March loan data. Elsewhere, Chile will release activity data for March, while Colombia unemployment will also cross. In the US, Q1 ECI, February house prices, April MNI Chicago PMI and consumer confidence all print ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.
  • USDJPY has climbed but has yet to reclaim the 157.00 level. The market is testing the waters post yesterday's strong rebound amid intervention speculation. Earlier comments from Chief FX Diplomat Kanda reiterated the authorities are ready to deal with FX at any time of the day. Latest headlines suggest that interventions may have amounted to around 5.5 trillion yen.
  • Global News:
    • MIDEAST – President Biden spoke on Monday with the leaders of Egypt and Qatar as he sought to increase pressure on Hamas to accept a deal that would result in a temporary cease-fire in the war in Gaza and the release of some of the hostages held there. According to a statement from the office of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, he and Mr Biden discussed the negotiations and Egypt’s efforts to broker a cease-fire.
    • CHINA (MNI) (Singapore) – China will continue its expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to cope with weak domestic demand and uncertain external environment, according to a statement of the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on April 30. Monetary-policy tools, such as interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio, will be used at a flexible pace to reduce overall social financing costs, while fiscal authorities will launch ultra-long special treasuries soon and accelerate the issuance of special local-government bonds.
    • COMMODITIES – Iron ore headed for the biggest monthly gain since late 2022 as Chinese data suggested the economy was gaining traction, and Beijing teased fresh moves to try and resolve the nation’s long-standing property crisis. Chinese factory activity expanded for a second straight month, according to figures released Tuesday, bolstering hopes that an economic rebound is gathering momentum.
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  • The focus on Tuesday turns to the BanRep MPC meeting, with analysts expecting the central bank to deliver another 50bp cut to 11.75%. In Brazil, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey, followed by March unemployment data, while Mexico will release Q1 GDP figures and March loan data. Elsewhere, Chile will release activity data for March, while Colombia unemployment will also cross. In the US, Q1 ECI, February house prices, April MNI Chicago PMI and consumer confidence all print ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.
  • USDJPY has climbed but has yet to reclaim the 157.00 level. The market is testing the waters post yesterday's strong rebound amid intervention speculation. Earlier comments from Chief FX Diplomat Kanda reiterated the authorities are ready to deal with FX at any time of the day. Latest headlines suggest that interventions may have amounted to around 5.5 trillion yen.
  • Global News:
    • MIDEAST – President Biden spoke on Monday with the leaders of Egypt and Qatar as he sought to increase pressure on Hamas to accept a deal that would result in a temporary cease-fire in the war in Gaza and the release of some of the hostages held there. According to a statement from the office of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, he and Mr Biden discussed the negotiations and Egypt’s efforts to broker a cease-fire.
    • CHINA (MNI) (Singapore) – China will continue its expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to cope with weak domestic demand and uncertain external environment, according to a statement of the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on April 30. Monetary-policy tools, such as interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio, will be used at a flexible pace to reduce overall social financing costs, while fiscal authorities will launch ultra-long special treasuries soon and accelerate the issuance of special local-government bonds.
    • COMMODITIES – Iron ore headed for the biggest monthly gain since late 2022 as Chinese data suggested the economy was gaining traction, and Beijing teased fresh moves to try and resolve the nation’s long-standing property crisis. Chinese factory activity expanded for a second straight month, according to figures released Tuesday, bolstering hopes that an economic rebound is gathering momentum.