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Summary – February 08

LATAM
  • Following Chile inflation data this morning, Brazil and Mexico CPI inflation for January will also be released at 1200GMT today. Later in the day, the focus will be on monetary policy meetings in Mexico and Peru. Banxico is expected to stay on hold at 11.25% but may soften its forward guidance to signal a potential rate cut in March, while BCRP is set to cut by another 25bp to 6.25%. In the US, weekly jobless claims data will cross, while the Fed's Barkin is due to speak.
  • Global News:
    • CHINA: MNI (Beijing) – Chinese local governments have set lofty GDP targets they aim to meet with increased investment and consumption, but tighter scrutiny over debt raising and falling fiscal revenue will restrain their capacity and could lead the central government to issue more bonds, policy advisors told MNI. The 31 provincial-level governments across China set their weighted average GDP target at 5.4% y/y for this year, compared to the 5.2% outturn in 2023.
    • JAPAN: BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida's comments on Thursday has somewhat weakened the chance of a March policy change, despite noting the probability of the Japanese economy achieving the 2% price target had increased. “The 2% target is expected to be achieved in a desirable manner accompanied by wage increases," Uchida told business leaders in Nara City. "The likelihood of realising this outlook has been gradually rising, although there remain high uncertainties over future developments.”
    • MIDEAST: the US killed the commander of an Iran-backed militia with a drone strike in Baghdad on Wednesday night, as the White House targets groups responsible for a deadly attack on an American base last month. The leader belonged to Kataib Hezbollah and was “responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on US forces in the region,” the Pentagon said.
    • US: the Senate voted down a sweeping national security and border reform package on Wednesday after most Senate Republicans banded together with a handful of Democrats to reject the legislation their leadership helped negotiate for months. The bill included more than $60bn in aid for Ukraine and $14bn for Israel in its war in Gaza.
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