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Summary – July 25

LATAM
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
  • Brazil will publish mid-month IPCA inflation data on Thursday, while June current account, FDI and tax collection data are also due. In Argentina, May wages and July consumer confidence will cross. In the US, weekly jobless claims numbers and the advance Q2 GDP print headline, although prelim durable goods orders could also prove key on an out-of-consensus reading. ECB's Nagel and Lagarde are both set to speak, although Nagel's appearance is more likely to be policy-oriented as he appears in Rio at the G20.
  • JPY – The JPY surge continues as the aggressive short-covering rally persists, putting the currency higher against all others again in G10. The Y152.00 handle is under pressure, and perhaps notably a print below Y151.95 would mark a full 1,000 pip reversal for USD/JPY off the pre-intervention high from early July.
  • Global news:
    • EU – European stocks tumbled on the busiest day of the corporate earnings season following underwhelming reports from a slate of companies including Kering SA and Nestle SA. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 1.4% at 1100BST, its biggest intraday slide since April.
    • US – President Biden framed his momentous decision to drop out of the 2024 race as a bid to unify the nation under a new generation of leaders, in his first speech since ending his re-election campaign and political career. He cast his exit from the race, made under intense pressure from fellow Democrats, as an act of self-sacrifice.
    • ISRAEL/US – PM Netanyahu gave a fiery defence of his nation’s war against Hamas in a speech to the US Congress, urging the US to fast-track military aid and dismissing concerns about the war’s mounting civilian death toll. He framed his nation’s fight against Hamas as a battle against its backer Iran, which he said wants to destroy the US as well.
    • CHINA (MNI Beijing) – The PBoC unexpectedly cut the one-year medium-term lending facility rate by 20bp to 2.3%, its first cut since August 2023. It also injected CNY200 bn via the tool into the interbank market on Thursday, according to a statement on the Bank’s website.
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  • Brazil will publish mid-month IPCA inflation data on Thursday, while June current account, FDI and tax collection data are also due. In Argentina, May wages and July consumer confidence will cross. In the US, weekly jobless claims numbers and the advance Q2 GDP print headline, although prelim durable goods orders could also prove key on an out-of-consensus reading. ECB's Nagel and Lagarde are both set to speak, although Nagel's appearance is more likely to be policy-oriented as he appears in Rio at the G20.
  • JPY – The JPY surge continues as the aggressive short-covering rally persists, putting the currency higher against all others again in G10. The Y152.00 handle is under pressure, and perhaps notably a print below Y151.95 would mark a full 1,000 pip reversal for USD/JPY off the pre-intervention high from early July.
  • Global news:
    • EU – European stocks tumbled on the busiest day of the corporate earnings season following underwhelming reports from a slate of companies including Kering SA and Nestle SA. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 1.4% at 1100BST, its biggest intraday slide since April.
    • US – President Biden framed his momentous decision to drop out of the 2024 race as a bid to unify the nation under a new generation of leaders, in his first speech since ending his re-election campaign and political career. He cast his exit from the race, made under intense pressure from fellow Democrats, as an act of self-sacrifice.
    • ISRAEL/US – PM Netanyahu gave a fiery defence of his nation’s war against Hamas in a speech to the US Congress, urging the US to fast-track military aid and dismissing concerns about the war’s mounting civilian death toll. He framed his nation’s fight against Hamas as a battle against its backer Iran, which he said wants to destroy the US as well.
    • CHINA (MNI Beijing) – The PBoC unexpectedly cut the one-year medium-term lending facility rate by 20bp to 2.3%, its first cut since August 2023. It also injected CNY200 bn via the tool into the interbank market on Thursday, according to a statement on the Bank’s website.