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Summary – June 05

LATAM
  • Brazil industrial production figures for April are due on Wednesday, followed by services and composite PMI data for May. Elsewhere, Argentina April IP and construction activity data will cross, while in Mexico the latest Banamex survey will be published. In the G10, the Bank of Canada is expected to deliver a first 25bp cut of the cycle, while in the US ADP employment and ISM services data for May are due, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls release.
  • Global News:
    • US / ISRAEL – Hamas has followed Israel in balking at President Biden’s efforts to end their war in Gaza, with both sides saying their conflicting conditions for a permanent cease-fire must be met before they’ll even agree to pause fighting. A Hamas spokesman said Tuesday that Israel must commit to a permanent cease-fire and full withdrawal from Gaza. That came a day after Israeli PM Netanyahu reaffirmed his position that the group’s political and military operations must be destroyed before the war is ended.
    • CANADA (MNI) – Markets are ~80% priced for a 25bp cut to 4.75% today, although a sizeable minority see the Bank of Canada holding until July (or later). Those that see a July, rather than a June, cut cite Fed re-pricing, the dangers of US-Canadian rate differentials and the still-booming local housing market. Any potential rate cut should be accompanied by clear communication that the pace of easing ahead will be gradual to prevent an even wider gap between US and Canadian rates, and the implicit impact on the exchange rate.
    • INDIA – Prime Minister Narendra Modi is gearing up for coalition talks after his party lost its majority in parliament, forcing him to rely on allies to form a government for the first time since he stormed to power a decade ago. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party needs to secure the support of two regional allies, who are notoriously unreliable, to stay in office for a third term. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is expected to hold a meeting in New Delhi Wednesday afternoon.
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