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Summary – June 12

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  • The US CPI release and the Fed decision should keep markets busy for the duration Wednesday. Sequential core inflation is seen remaining relatively steady in May at 0.3% m/m, while headline CPI is expected to pull back to +0.1% m/m, from +0.31% m/m in April. Meanwhile, the FOMC will ensure a full year of the Fed funds rate remaining at 5.25-5.50%, with focus on what is signalled for potential easing later this year. Outside of the Fed and US data, the ECB's Nagel appears just ahead of the US close.
  • In Latam, Brazil will publish services volume data for April, while Mexico May ANTAD same-store sales are also due.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – The FOMC’s new Dot Plot is likely to show a shift in the Fed funds median to 2 cuts in 2024, versus 3 in the prior two editions, alongside a nudge higher in the inflation forecasts. There are increasing risks of a shift to just 1 cut after May's strong payroll gains, particularly if the CPI data come in on the strong side.
    • G-7 / RUSSIA – G-7 leaders will call on China to stop enabling and sustaining Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to a draft statement seen by Bloomberg. Kyiv’s allies are accusing Beijing of providing Russia with technologies and parts, aiding Moscow’s efforts to get around wave after wave of G-7 trade restrictions on many of those goods.
    • OIL – Global oil markets face a “major” surplus this decade as the shift away from fossil fuels causes demand to hit a plateau amid plentiful supply growth, the IEA said. World consumption will “level off” at 105.6 million barrels a day in 2029, about 4% higher than last year’s level, amid surging sales of electric vehicles and improved fuel efficiency, the Paris-based policy adviser said in its annual medium-term outlook.
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  • The US CPI release and the Fed decision should keep markets busy for the duration Wednesday. Sequential core inflation is seen remaining relatively steady in May at 0.3% m/m, while headline CPI is expected to pull back to +0.1% m/m, from +0.31% m/m in April. Meanwhile, the FOMC will ensure a full year of the Fed funds rate remaining at 5.25-5.50%, with focus on what is signalled for potential easing later this year. Outside of the Fed and US data, the ECB's Nagel appears just ahead of the US close.
  • In Latam, Brazil will publish services volume data for April, while Mexico May ANTAD same-store sales are also due.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – The FOMC’s new Dot Plot is likely to show a shift in the Fed funds median to 2 cuts in 2024, versus 3 in the prior two editions, alongside a nudge higher in the inflation forecasts. There are increasing risks of a shift to just 1 cut after May's strong payroll gains, particularly if the CPI data come in on the strong side.
    • G-7 / RUSSIA – G-7 leaders will call on China to stop enabling and sustaining Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to a draft statement seen by Bloomberg. Kyiv’s allies are accusing Beijing of providing Russia with technologies and parts, aiding Moscow’s efforts to get around wave after wave of G-7 trade restrictions on many of those goods.
    • OIL – Global oil markets face a “major” surplus this decade as the shift away from fossil fuels causes demand to hit a plateau amid plentiful supply growth, the IEA said. World consumption will “level off” at 105.6 million barrels a day in 2029, about 4% higher than last year’s level, amid surging sales of electric vehicles and improved fuel efficiency, the Paris-based policy adviser said in its annual medium-term outlook.