Summary Of Analyst BoC Views Post-CPI [2/2]

Ranked by prior views from relatively dovish to hawkish:

• Scotia: It could “support a further downshifting in the pace of rate hikes in Dec and more cautious forward guidance toward a coming pause” when factoring in Gov. Macklem choosing to downplay wage growth.
• CIBC: Expect another 50bp hike in Dec with the BoC having to rely on indicators of slowing growth, rather than immediate progress on inflation, to justify a pause in Q1.
• GS: Still expect a 50bp hike in Dec but we take the CPI report as a clear signal that inflation is on a downward trajectory and see some downside risk to our 4.5% terminal rate.
• BMO: Reviewing 50bp call for Dec but given that most measures of core inflation remain locked in a range around 5%, we continue to see overnight rates ultimately going above 4% to eventually crack underlying inflation [had 4.5% terminal in Bloomberg survey].