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Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

BOE
  • 18/22 (82%) of analysts look for a 50bp hike in December while four analysts looking for 75bp all see downside risks (BofA, Nomura, NWM and UBS).
  • Market pricing of 67bp sees around a 2/3 chance of a 75bp hike.
  • Only three analysts have changed their forecast in the aftermath of the November MPC meeting:
    • Credit Suisse now look for 50bp (rather than 75bp in December) but maintain their terminal rate expectation of 4.50% - achieved one meeting later in May 2023.
    • Daiwa has revised down its forecast of the terminal rate from 4.75% to 4.25%.
    • SEB expect two 50bp hikes in December and February to a terminal rate of 4.00% (previously they had looked for 50bp in November and December to a terminal 3.25%).

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