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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
BOE
- Most analysts are focused on the forecasts at this meeting and for those that have stated a view on full forecasts/scenarios there is a slim majority who think full forecasts will be back.
- In terms of the central forecast, most analysts were quick vague over what the Bank would do other than the trough will be revised higher and most expect the pace of the rebound to be slowed further.
- Most do not expect the review of the effective lower bound (ELB) to be announced at this meeting, although Deutsche Bank note that they expect this to come either this month or in September. Most other analysts expect the review alongside the November MPR and for the Bank to leave the door open to negative rates without being too explicit.
- No analysts are expecting shocks to the QE pace with a slowing to the pace of purchases to around GBP4-5bln weekly purchases expected to be confirmed (from GBP6.9bln per week currently).
- Of those who comment on the vote breakdown, all expect a unanimous decision with the exception of Barclays who state "a split in votes is very likely" but sees "November as a more relevant time for decision-taking.
- In terms of view changes in the weeks since the post-June meeting review round, analyst views have largely remained unchanged about future policy. A number have tweaked their expectations including specifying November for more action rather than merely "by year end".
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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