Summary of UBS's call for Wednesday's FOMC......>

FED: Summary of UBS's call for Wednesday's FOMC decision...very much the boldest

sell-side view: "Front-End YCC And Open-Ended 'QE' Is The Baseline":

- Fed to shift to a medium-term macro stance, with forward guidance reinforced

by YCC, and open-ended QE. With emergency facilities mostly operational and no

new facilities discussed, we think the time is now.

- Fwd guidance: Fed to hold rates "as long as necessary to ensure that the

economy returns to full employment and that inflation is durably at its

symmetric 2 percent inflation objective, and in any event, at least until

mid-2023." - both qualitative and date-based. 

- YCC: Fed to announce that they stand ready to buy any Tsy that matures before

mid-2023 at a price that is consistent with a yield of 20bps. The yield will

likely be set either as a spread below the target range or as a simple number.

- QE: Open-ended QE at $50bln each of Tsys and MBS (lower rather than higher

because it is open-ended) "until substantial progress is made toward our

macroeconomic objectives." With the front-end pegged by YCC and forward

guidance, the FOMC shifts Tsy purchases to being maturities of 5-Yr+.