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Summer Gas to Remain Bearish as Global LNG Demand to Grow 1% y/y: BNEF

LNG

The outlook for both Asia spot LNG and TTF remains bearish with upside risks from weather, supply disruptions and higher demand according to BNEF. Global demand for LNG could edge up 1% year-on-year this summer led by South and Southeast Asia assuming 10-year average weather.

  • Muted competition between NW Europe and North Asia is expected to limited upside in spot prices to benefit price sensitive buyers.
  • North Asia's demand could drop slightly as lower imports in Japan and South Korea counter an increase in mainland China as lower gas costs boost consumption in the transport and power sectors. Japan and South Korea demand will be limited by higher nuclear and coal generation and healthy storage.
  • Healthy gas storage in NW Europe and Italy will limit the refill requirements over the summer but a slight recovery in residential/ commercial and industrial demand may support LNG imports. Gas storage in NW Europe is expected to end Summer 24 at 97% full after a 4% increase in imports from last summer.
  • Global LNG supply is forecast 2% higher in Summer 24 y/y with growth in US and Russia supply partially offset by declining output from legacy projects.


Source: BNEF

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