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GS: Payrolls Doesn't Change Faster Taper & First Hike In June Call


Bull Theme Remains Intact


Strong Stocks, Rebound for Oil Weighs on Tsys


Trend Signals Still Point South


Stabilises Off Lows

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  • STIR markets have taken a bit of a breather today with the biggest move across the Eurodollar / short sterling / Euribor strips being 3 ticks on the day so far. Gilts and Bunds have reversed some early weakness to trade almost flat on the day with little movement in curves. Treasuries, meanwhile, have seen a flattening of the curve with 2-year yields 0.8bp higher but 10-year yields 1.8bp lower on the day.
  • There has been no market-moving data in the European morning session with focus instead on supply with a green 30-year gilt being launched via syndication for GBP6bln, while Spain has sold E5.1bln of Bonos/Oblis, France sold E7.5bln of MT OATs and a French linker auction still to close. The US will hold a 5-year TIPS auction later, too.
  • There were some interesting comments from Banca d'Italia's Visco who suggested that a common EU sink fund should be created to buy excess debt issued by EU national governments due to the pandemic in order to help put national debt sustainability on a better track. It's unlikely we would see anything on this scale retrospectively, however.
  • Looking ahead we have US claims and existing home sales as well as an appearance from Fed's Waller.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-3+ today at 130-17 with 10y UST yields down -1.8bp at 1.640% and 2y yields up 0.8bp at 0.395%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.02 today at 168.69 with 10y Bund yields up 0.4bp at -0.123% and Schatz yields up 0.4bp at -0.682%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.08 today at 124.17 with 10y yields down -0.4bp at 1.142% and 2y yields down -0.5bp at 0.669%.