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Free AccessSurprising Lack Of Reaction To Q3 BoP Deterioration
- The Canadian current account balance fell back to a much larger deficit than expected in Q3, switching from a surplus of C$2.65B to a deficit of -C$11.1B (cons -C$4B), along with sizeable downward revisions prior to Q2.
- It sees a current account deficit at circa -1.6% GDP in Q3 (estimating Q3 GDP) after average surpluses of 0.3% GDP in 1H22 in a sharp re-adjustment back towards pre-pandemic deficits that were running between 2-2.5% GDP.
- Deterioration on the quarter was led by goods (lower energy export prices) but the service and investment income deficits also widened further.
- In % GDP terms, the current account balance is the most negative since 3Q20, with a similar picture in basic balance terms at -3.2% GDP on a 4Q rolling basis with continued acceleration of net FDI outflows.
- Even allowing for the fact its for data back in Q3, there is relatively little reaction in USDCAD, which has drifted a few pips lower, and with Can-US yield differentials little changed.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.