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Swedbank: Now look for Q4-22 first hike

RIKSBANK
  • "The strong domestic economy, together with the recent hawkish signals from the ECB, will force the Riksbank to gradually tighten policy during the upcoming MPRs. We now expect that the repo rate will be hiked already in Q4 of this year, followed by two more hikes next year: one in Q2 and one in Q4. We also believe that the Riksbank will speed up the reduction in the securities holdings and only buy SEK 24bn of bonds in Q4 2022 and SEK 8bn in Q4 2023. The holdings of T-bills will be phased out in H2 2022."
  • Ahead of the meeting Swedbank had been looking for the repo rate path to show a hike one or two quarters earlier (it showed one quarter) and had questioned whether corporate bond purchases would continue in Q2-22. It notes that "the minutes from the meeting published on 21 February will be interesting."
  • It also acknowledges that today's announcement was "soft".

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