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SWEDEN: Larger Than Expected Autumn Spending Announcement

SWEDEN

Swedish Finance Minister Svantesson announced that reforms in the autumn budget will total “around SEK60bln”. The National Debt Office had accounted for SEK40bln of unfunded fiscal measures in its May 2024 forecast round, while the National Institute and SEB had expected SEK50bln of additional spending.

  • The SEK20bln additional spending vs the NDO’s projections will thus need to be accounted for in the November forecast round, and may impact bond auction sizes and total issuance. 
  • However, this will be partially offset by a smaller Riksbank capital injection than assumed in May (of SEK25bln vs an initial estimate of around SEK40bln).
  • The development of the budget balance against the May projections will also feed into the forecast revisions made in November. As of July, the budget deficit tracked SEK10.8bln outside the NDO’s forecasts (i.e. a larger deficit than expected).
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