Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI (LONDON) - The Swedish economy is still waiting for an economic recovery to take hold. Domestic consumption and investment continue to drag on growth, while the labour market has weakened further. However, with additional rate cuts on the horizon and inflation normalising, economic prospects appear favourable heading into 2025.
PDF Analysis Here: 2024_08_Sweden_Macro_Signal.pdf
- Economic Activity: Q2 GDP was -0.3% Q/Q, above the flash estimate of -0.8% but still below the Riksbank’s June MPR forecast of 0.0%.
- Inflation: Conditions appear favourable for Swedish inflation to remain consistent with the 2% target going forward.
- Labour Market: The Swedish labour market has undergone further gradual rebalancing over the past 3 months.
- Monetary Policy: The Riksbank delivered its fully anticipated 25bp cut in August, bringing the policy rate to 3.50%.
Medium-Term Outlook: Analysts expect economic growth to pick up from Q2 2025 to an annual rate of over 2.5%. Such a forecast hinges on inflation remaining close to the 2% target, enabling the Riksbank to continue its (fairly aggressive) easing cycle. The combination of less restrictive monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy should support a recovery in the Swedish labour market, which should filter into more robust consumption growth.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.