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Contained In Asia


Tests The Fibonacci Retracement


Bearish Threat Still Present


Gains Considered Corrective



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T-Notes operate around late NY levels, last dealing -0-02 at 132-19+. The contract held a tight range on Thursday, touching the top end of the recent range before closing around the middle of the day's range. Cash Tsys were ultimately little changed, finishing flat to 1.0bp cheaper across the curve, coiling ahead of Friday's jobs report. It is interesting to note that benchmark Tsy yields have been biased lower this week, even with expectations for a ~+1mn print in tomorrow's headline NFP reading. This comes as the bulk of the regional Fed Presidents that have spoken, as well as some of the permanent voters on the FOMC, pointed to no need to discuss a tapering of the central bank's asset purchases at present.

  • Local data was generally in line to better than expected on Thursday, although those prints provided a lack of lasting meaningful impact on the space. There was some offshore impetus from the latest BoE decision, which saw the BoE slow the rate of its asset purchases (although the size of the scheme was left unchanged, effectively elongating the timeline of the current purchase scheme).
  • In the STIR space, interest continues to swell in long 3EU1 98.00 put positioning, with over 100K of the option lifted on Thursday, which many have tied to a bet on some form of Fed tapering announcement at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • The release of the RBA's SoMP, the latest Chinese Caixin services PMI and monthly Chinese trade data headline during Asia-Pac hours, although the proximity to the NFP release may lift the hurdle re: those release's ability to have an impact on the broader financial markets.