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Talanx: Good Guidance Offsets 4Q23 Miss. Credit Already Performed Well Recently

FINANCIALS

Talanx results (TLX GY) are a headline miss but with solid forward guidance, upgraded marginally from the prelims from 8-Feb. The earnings miss is likely offset by the upgraded guidance but note that the TALANX curve has tightened (up to 24bp) in the last month. There seems little here to push this further.


  • Key credit metrics: Solvency II margin not released until 7-May AGM but equity is up 6% from Sep-23 after the equity issuance in 4Q23.
  • Operating metrics: revenues are up 12% (1% better than consensus, P&C better, reinsurance weaker) but the insurance service result is 1% lower and a nearly 30% below consensus with a big miss in reinsurance (large losses).
  • Outlook: mgmt indications are for >EUR1.7bn of net income in FY24 (same as 8-Feb) and >EUR1.9bn in FY25, a new target and marginally above current consensus expectations.

Conf call is 0800 London time at: https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=4TFYbr2a

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