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NORWAY: TBU Estimates 2025 Inflation Growth At 2.5%, Wage Overhang Of 1.8%

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The Norwegian wage settlement committee (TBU) forecasts 2025 inflation at 2.5%. Taken alongside a wage overhang estimate of 1.8%, this suggests a rough wage growth anchor of 4.3% for the upcoming union wage negotiation rounds.

  • Norges Bank’s December MPR projects 2025 inflation at 2.6% and annual wage growth of 4.2%. Norges Bank regional network contacts expected a slightly firmer 4.5% in the Q4 survey.
  • TBU estimated 2024 wage growth at 5.3%, a touch above Norges Bank’s 5.2% projection. The Q4 national accounts released earlier this week saw 2024 wages and salaries growth at 5.8% (vs 6.6% in 2023), with compensation per employee growth at 5.5% Y/Y (vs 7.8% in 2023).
  • TBU cites uncertainty with the inflation forecast stemming from the “krone exchange rate, energy prices and the international economy, including the risk of major changes in trade policy.” A new estimate of inflation will be presented on March 12. 
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The Norwegian wage settlement committee (TBU) forecasts 2025 inflation at 2.5%. Taken alongside a wage overhang estimate of 1.8%, this suggests a rough wage growth anchor of 4.3% for the upcoming union wage negotiation rounds.

  • Norges Bank’s December MPR projects 2025 inflation at 2.6% and annual wage growth of 4.2%. Norges Bank regional network contacts expected a slightly firmer 4.5% in the Q4 survey.
  • TBU estimated 2024 wage growth at 5.3%, a touch above Norges Bank’s 5.2% projection. The Q4 national accounts released earlier this week saw 2024 wages and salaries growth at 5.8% (vs 6.6% in 2023), with compensation per employee growth at 5.5% Y/Y (vs 7.8% in 2023).
  • TBU cites uncertainty with the inflation forecast stemming from the “krone exchange rate, energy prices and the international economy, including the risk of major changes in trade policy.” A new estimate of inflation will be presented on March 12.