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TD: 75bp September Hike, Higher Terminal Rate

BOC

TD now looks for a 75bp hike from the Bank of Canada at their next meeting on Sept 7th, to 3.25% - they'd previously seen 50bp (in line with consensus).

  • "The combination of very strong inflation and extremely tight labour market metrics both support aggressive tightening from the BoC. A 75bp move would also be consistent with the Governor's prepared remarks from the MPR press conference, in which he argued that rates should move quickly to the top-end, or slightly above, the neutral range."
  • They expect a terminal rate in this cycle of 3.50% (up from their previous view of 3.25%) following a further 25bp rise in October, with rate cuts beginning in Q3 2023, but "caution that the balance of risks around the terminal rate skews decisively towards a higher end point for the BoC."
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