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TD Preview: QE Booster Shot

FED
TD expects Fed officials to follow through with recent discussions, and at a minimum are highly likely to introduce new fwd guidance "to make clear that the QE program will continue until there is clear-cut progress toward the maximum employment and 2% inflation goals".
  • TD also expects a lengthening of WAM of Tsy purchases, though this could be delayed to a later meeting.
  • The outcome-based guidance will be somewhat vague ('qualitative', not 'quantitative', so broad references to the employment and inflation goals rather than specific readings that would trigger changes. The relative dovishness of the guidance will depend on the wording used.
  • TD doesn't anticipate tapering until 2023 and hiking until 2025.
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