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TD: Receive 1Y1Y And Eye 10Y GoC Underperformance

CANADA
  • TD Securities write that "the large downside surprise on January CPI has opened up an intriguing conversation about a potential move in June, but we still see only a very narrow path to cuts in April.”
  • “And as things stand today, we do not think that the Bank will have enough data to declare that inflation is moving sustainably back to 2.0% until the July rate announcement.”
  • “We continue to look for 4 BoC cuts this year, and 4 next year; markets have only priced in ~75bps of easing for 2024, and as such we continue to receive 1y1y in our model portfolio.”
  • TD revise their forecasts for the belly 5-10bps higher, with 5s and 10s at 3.25% at year-end. “We continue to look for GoCs to underperform versus USTs over a 2-3 quarter horizon” with a year-end Can-US 10Y spread at -20bps.
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