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TD Securities On Tuesday’s CAD CPI

CANADA
  • TD Securities see headline CPI firming two tenths to 3.3% Y/Y in December “as base effects from 2022 more than offset a 0.4% decline on the month.”
  • The NSA M/M drop mainly comes from “gasoline prices and seasonal factors”.
  • “Shelter prices will remain a key driver across the ex. food/energy aggregate even with some deceleration across the major components. Airfares will contribute a key source of strength, while seasonal factors weigh heavily on core goods.”
  • TD see core inflation rates ease further “with a 0.1-0.2pp decline for CPI-trim/median, leaving the average at 3.3% y/y, even as these measures firm on a 3m annualized basis [from 2.4% to 2.7% in Dec, and again to 2.9% in Jan].”
  • “Even with headline CPI printing slightly below BoC projections for Q4, we believe the Bank still needs to see additional evidence of cooling inflation pressures before it drops the threat of further hikes.”
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