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TD Securities See Today's CPI Report as Likely to Show Little Progress on Inflation

CANADA DATA
  • Ahead of the CAD CPI release in just under an hour, TD Securities write that they expect the January CPI report to show limited progress on the path to 2% inflation with a 0.2pp deceleration to 3.2% Y/Y. They see M/M CPI at +0.4% m/m. They note that today’s release is unlikely to give the BoC much evidence of softer underlying price pressures, especially with core inflation measures expected to edge higher on a 3m annualized basis.
  • They see the shelter aggregate rising by another 0.4% m/m on stronger rents and mortgage interest costs, resulting in a modest acceleration Y/Y.
  • Core inflation measures should reinforce the mixed tone with a 0.1pp decline for CPI trim/median to 3.55% y/y, translating to an acceleration on a 3m annualized basis to 3.8% from 3.6%.
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