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Gold Inching Toward Bull Trigger

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  • EURHUF is retracing some of this week's early sell-off. The cross remains vulnerable and short-term gains are considered corrective. The extension lower has exposed 345.14, the Jun 10 low and a key support plus bear trigger. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 356.57, Tuesday's high.
  • Last week's gains in EURPLN resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs suggesting scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 4.5868, 61.8% of the Mar 29 - Jun 7 downleg and 4.5931, Apr 28 high. Support is at 4.4872, Jun 14 low. The cross continues to test the 20-day EMA, which is providing support for now - the EMA intersects at 4.5133.
  • USDZAR is off recent highs. The outlook though remains bullish.
    • A key bear channel resistance drawn off the Apr 24 2020 high has recently been cleared.
    • Price has also traded through the 50-day EMA.
    • The channel has been cleared before. However if the current rally can be maintained, this would signal a significant reversal of the entire downtrend that started early Apr 2020.
    • The focus is on 14.5434 next, May 4 high.
    • Initial support is seen at 13.9938, the 20-day EMA.
  • USDTRY recently recovered from support at the 50-day EMA - the EMA is considered a key support area and the bounce from it is bullish. Sights are set on 8.8008, Jun 2 high and the bull trigger where a break would open 8.9657, 2.00 projection of the Feb 16 - Mar 9 - Mar 19 price swing. Key support is at 8.2860, Jun 11 low.
  • USDRUB maintains a bearish tone following the recent break of 72.5385, Mar 16 low. The focus is on 71.0838, 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2020 rally. Resistance is at 73.5231, the 50-day EMA.