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Telenor Beats On Q4 Rev And FCF But Misses On adj-EBITDA

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  • Q4 Rev of NOK 20.9bn (+6.4% YoY o/w 4% organic) against consensus of NOK 20.7bn driven by a NOK 0.3bn beat in their largest market (Nordics). adj-EBITDA of 8.5bn (+5.3% YoY o/w 4% organic) vs. consensus of NOK 8.7bn. NOK 9.5 2023 DPS and 31.1mn share buybacks in the summer.
  • FY23 targets met: Org Nordic service rev growth of 3.4% vs. >3% target, Org Nordic EBITDA growth of 3.7% vs. target of 3-4%, CapEx/Sales of 16.7% vs. target of ~17%
  • MT targets left unchanged, FY24 targets include mid-single digit organic EBITDA growth (for both the group and Nordic market), Nordic capex/sales of ~17%, FCF before M&A of NOK 9-10bn (from NOK 9.5bn this year).
  • Q4 FCF Before M&A of NOK 4.9bn vs. consensus NOK 3.8bn on the back of a NOK 2.4bn tax refund and CapEx of NOK 3.17bn vs. consensus 3.3bn. Leverage flat to Q3 at 2.2x against the 1.8-2.3x target.
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