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This week: Brexit deal and MPC speakers

UK
  • The main talking point in the UK this week will be the new Brexit deal that is expected to be announced this afternoon following a meeting in Windsor today between PM Sunak and EC President von der Leyen. The meeting is expected to take place “late lunchtime” according to Politico with a joint press conference likely late afternoon, before the deal is outlined to parliament later today. The deal is unlikely to be immediately market moving, with the greater risk being that political uncertainty increases in the UK once again if Sunak’s backbenchers fail to get onboard.
  • Turning to economic events, there will be more focus this week on MPC speeches than data. The highlights will be a speech from Governor Bailey at the “Cost of Living Crisis Conference” on Wednesday morning as well as a speech by Chief Economist Huw Pill on Thursday on the 2023 economic outlook. There will also be an appearance from the BOE’s Executive Head of Markets, Andrew Hauser, on Friday afternoon as he gives opening remarks at a workshop on market dysfunction. The week will also see comments from Broadbent, Mann and Cunliffe although none of these are likely to see anything new on monetary policy.
  • The main data due this week are final PMI prints as well as money supply and housing data. None of these are likely to be big market movers.
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