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Tomorrow's Flash Headline HICP Tracking Around 5.5% (1/2)

EUROZONE DATA

Eurozone-wide June flash inflation data is released Friday (1000UK, 1100CET - see our PDF preview for full details). So far June Eurozone HICP is tracking about 5.5% Y/Y vs 6.1% in May, close to but a touch lower than the 5.6% expected coming into the week, with about 60% of weighed national estimates in.

  • That assumes the Dutch (0545UK/0645CET) and French (0745UK/0845CET) prints (a combined 25% of the HICP basket) tomorrow morning are in line with expectations.
  • The final figure could still nudge 0.1pp higher or lower in the event either (especially France, 20% of the eurozone) surprises significantly.
  • As the chart below shows, Germany is as expected an outlying contributor to the upside, absent which eurozone-wide HICP would probably print below 5%.
  • In terms of updated analyst forecasts after today's numbers, Goldman Sachs sees 5.63% Y/Y (vs 5.61% previously), whereas Berenberg is sticking to its 5.4% Y/Y forecast.

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