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Topside USD/JPY Interest Clear to See in Post-BoJ Hedging Behaviour

OPTIONS
  • Stellar session Tuesday for FX options volumes, with the BoJ and RBA decisions helping underpin activity. Over $110bln notional crossed via the DTCC – making for the busiest session for FX derivatives since February 2nd.
  • Unsurprisingly, USD/JPY hedges were front and centre. Clear demand for OTM calls and ITM puts above yesterday’s highs of 150.96 provide clear evidence of topside interest after the post-BoJ rally on Tuesday (see chart below) – a pattern that’s persisted into Wednesday trade, with some of the largest trades comprised of Y153 calls and Y151.50, Y153.50 puts rolling off at the end of April.
  • The decline in G10 FX implied vols has steadied – at least in the short-end – with most 1m implied vol contracts edging higher – a pattern that’s consistent out to six month tenors – which capture likely policy pivots from the ECB, Fed and BoE, as well as pre-election political risk across the US and UK.
  • More sizeable strikes rolling off today include a series of expiries that could keep EUR/USD rangebound: $1.0800(E1.1bln), $1.0810-25(E2.1bln), $1.0875-80(E1.2bln), $1.0900-10(E2.2bln), while options interest in AUD/USD could come into play on further spot weakness: AUD/USD: $0.6500(A$1.1bln).


Figure 1: Topside interest north of Tuesday high clear in JPY hedging post-BoJ

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