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Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widens

THAILAND

The customs trade deficit widened in May to $1849mn whereas a significant narrowing was expected. Both imports and exports fell less than in April and less than expected at -3.4% y/y and -4.6% respectively.

  • Exports were stronger than forecast due to increased demand for some food products and the weaker currency (USDTHB is up 3.5% since the May 14 election). Manufactured goods rose for the first time in 8 months by 1.5% y/y due to cars. Lower seasonal fruit exports weighed on total agricultural shipments which fell 27% y/y. Exports to China fell 1.5% y/y in May.
  • The government expects better export growth in H2 because of increased food exports to China, recovering tourism and stronger global growth. It continues to forecast 2023 export growth of 1-2%. There are downside risks though from slower global growth and weather affecting food output.
Thailand exports vs imports y/y% 3mma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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