Trade Surplus Widens To Highest In 6 Months

Indonesia’s October trade surplus widened moderately to $3480mn from $3405mn, the highest in six months, due to export growth improving more than imports. Exports fell 10.4% y/y up from -16.2% the previous month and imports fell 2.4% up from -12.5%, both stronger than expected. The rupiah has strengthened 1.3% versus the dollar today on lower US CPI data. An improving trade position should support the currency over the medium-term.

• The trade data is nominal and so the totals are impacted by price movements, especially for commodities. Indonesia saw export prices fall on the month and year for its main commodities. Coal exports fell -38% y/y, palm oil -33.8% y/y and mining -28.6% y/y. Monthly export growth was driven by shipments of mineral fuels, precious metals, jewellery and footwear.
• YTD non-oil and gas exports fell 12.7% y/y to October due to lower prices but volume growth was positive.
• YTD imports fell 7.8% y/y with capital goods -12.7% but they rose 11.1% y/y for the month of October. Consumer goods rose 3.8% y/y.