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Free AccessTrans-Mountain Pipeline to Squeeze Flows to US Refiners
Canada’s Trans-Mountain pipeline (TMX) expansion will almost triple the flow of crude to Canada’s Pacific coast from 2024, diverting crude from refiners in the US mid-west and Gulf Coast, according to Reuters.
- This could add as much as $2/b to prices paid by U.S. Midwest oil refineries that sit along Canada's existing main oil-export route according to Reuters.
- "They will be competing for barrels that no longer transit through their region," a Calgary-based oil trader told Reuters. "The market will have to reshuffle."
- Pipeline operator Enbridge expects flows on its Mainline system drop by 300k b/d once TMX operations begin.
- Once operational, Canada could ship an extra 590k b/d to Pacific ports for delivery to U.S. West Coast and Asia refiners, where long-term demand for heavy sour crude is expected to grow.
- TMX will make Canadian crude "re-exports" from the Gulf Coast less viable. Over 200k b/d of Canadian crude has been re-exported from the USGC so far in 2023, compared to 73k bpd in 2019, Kpler data showed.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.