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Treasuries Little Changed, Ranges Tight Ahead of US CPI Later This Week

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures ticked higher in early morning trading, before the long-end pared gains with weakness in JGBs contributing to the move. The 10Y contract is up (+ 01+) at 108-24, with intraday highs of 108-25+, while the 2Y contract is has held up throughout the day now trade near intraday highs, up ( + 00⅜) at 101-20.75.
  • Looking at 10Y technicals, we still sit comfortably above initial support at 108-15+ (20-day EMA) a break here would open a retests of 107-04 (Apr 25 lows), while initial resistance is 109-06+/08+ (Channel top from Feb 1 high / 50-day EMA)
  • Cash Treasury curve bull-steepened today, yields are about flat to 1bps lower, with the 2Y -0.9bps at 4.856%, the 10Y -0.2bp to 4.494% with the 2y10y -0.436 at -36.693.
  • Looking across local rates markets: NZGBs yields are flat to 0.5bps lower, ACGBs are 1-2bps higher while JGBs are 1-4bps higher.
  • The projected rate cut pricing cooled vs. late Thursday: June 2024 at -5% w/ cumulative rate cut -1.2bp (-2.5bp late Thu) at 5.307%, July'24 at -22% w/ cumulative at -6.7bp (-9bp late Thu) at 5.253%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.2bp vs. -22.4bp, Nov'24 cumulative -27.7bp -31.1bp, Dec'24 -40.9bp vs. -45bp.
  • Looking Ahead: A slow start to the week, focus is on PPI and CPI on Tue/Wed
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