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Treasuries Rally Broadly Across The Curve Ahead Of CPI

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have reversed a cheapening seen with and after the Asia open to leave them little changed on the day ahead of US CPI, with the long end lagging larger moves in EU FI and once again especially Gilts.
  • Yesterday’s session saw a further pulling back in 10Y yields from the latest attempt above the 4% mark, which sees solid resistance with a triple top drawn from 2009, 2010 and ytd highs, whilst 2s10s sits in the middle of its post-Sep FOMC range, currently -40bps having touched -58bp shortly after the FOMC and highs of -24bps.
  • 2YY -0.4bps at 4.287%, 5YY -1.6bps at 4.102%, 10YY -1bps at 3.886%, and 30YY -0.5bps at 3.87%.
  • TYZ2 trades 2+ ticks higher at 111-18 with gains considered corrective amidst a bearish outlook. Support is seen at the bear trigger of 110-19 (Sep 28 low) whilst to the upside lies resistance at 112-25+ (20-day EMA).
  • Data: CPI inflation dominates the session at 0830ET with core seen 0.4% M/M in Sep after 0.57% in Aug - full preview here. Also see real earnings and jobless claims at the same time.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $18B 30Y Bond re-open auction (912810TJ7) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 4W, $50B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET

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