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Treasuries Resume Yesterday’s Surge, 10Y TIPS Later

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have resumed yesterday’s surge (led by US retailer cost pressure warnings) through the European session after a brief period of respite overnight on throughput ticking up at the Shanghai port and positive developments surrounding Shanghai’s removal of Covid restrictions.
  • In a change to yesterday where resilient Fed hike expectations somewhat pinned the front-end of the curve and drove a sizeable flattening, this morning’s rally has been largely across the curve (2s10s 21bps).
  • 2YY -5.2bps at 2.618%, 5YY -6.3bps at 2.828%, 10YY -6.0bps at 2.824% and 30YY -5.1bps at 3.013%.
  • TYM2 sits 15 ticks higher at 119-29 on strong volumes from an earlier high of 119-30+. They move within touching distance of resistance at 120-00+ (May 12 high) after which lies 120-18+ (Apr 27 high).
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $14B 10Y TIPS auction re-open (91282CDX6) – 1300ET
  • Bills issuance: US Tsy $35B 4W, $30B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
  • Data: Philly Fed of note as a similar slide to that seen in Monday’s Empire mfg survey could add fuel to the rates rally, along with existing home sales for April.
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