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Treasuries Unwind ISM Hit But Still See Substantial Rally

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have pulled back off session highs to unwind the additional rally on the ISM mfg miss.
  • They still see a significant rally on the day though, with yields 17.5-21bps lower across 2-10Y tenors, led by the belly on what started as a fading of Friday’s quarter-end cheapening that accelerated with the US coming in and looking to large rallies in EU FI (European bank concerns, UK fiscal u-turns).
  • Even larger declines in real yields (5YY -33bps) see the breakeven pop higher (5Y +12bps) but having fallen sharply since the Sep FOMC the latter is still only at 2.29% and at levels last seen in Feb’21.
  • TYZ2 at 113-07 holds onto its clearance of 113-00 from a high of 113-27+ that came close to testing the 20-day EMA of 113-30 in second resistance of the day before volumes petered away.
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