GERMAN DATA
The German truck toll index increased in January, coming in at +2.4% M/M (seasonally adjusted; vs -3.5% prior) and -1.6% Y/Y (vs -3.4% prior). Laying aside October and December 2023 prints, activity is still the lowest since the pandemic.
- The index is a strong momentum indicator for economic activity, especially in the production sector, according to the German statistics office Destatis. This seems to be the case particularly for the non-seasonally adjusted series, see below.
- IP underperformed against the truck toll index in recent years in Janurary. Nevertheless, today's strong rebound in the toll index suggest the ongoing decline in industrial production might flatten out slightly in Janurary after December data, published yesterday, surprised to the downside again (-1.6% M/M vs -0.5% cons).
MNI, Destatis
Looking at the two indices on a longer term basis, industrial production started to underperform against the truck toll index around the start of 2017.
- On a Y/Y level, the two series continued their strong correlation across the time horizon available, with the largest deviations in the Covid period.
MNI, Destatis
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