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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
The German truck toll index increased in January, coming in at +2.4% M/M (seasonally adjusted; vs -3.5% prior) and -1.6% Y/Y (vs -3.4% prior). Laying aside October and December 2023 prints, activity is still the lowest since the pandemic.
- The index is a strong momentum indicator for economic activity, especially in the production sector, according to the German statistics office Destatis. This seems to be the case particularly for the non-seasonally adjusted series, see below.
- IP underperformed against the truck toll index in recent years in Janurary. Nevertheless, today's strong rebound in the toll index suggest the ongoing decline in industrial production might flatten out slightly in Janurary after December data, published yesterday, surprised to the downside again (-1.6% M/M vs -0.5% cons).
MNI, Destatis
Looking at the two indices on a longer term basis, industrial production started to underperform against the truck toll index around the start of 2017.
- On a Y/Y level, the two series continued their strong correlation across the time horizon available, with the largest deviations in the Covid period.
MNI, Destatis
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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