Trudeau Gov't On Thin Ice After NDP Withdraws From C&S Agreement

Canada faces the increased likelihood of a snap general election after Jagmeet Singh, head of the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), said on 4 Sep that he would be pulling his party's support from a confidence-and-supply agreement. The NDP's withdrawal leaves Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority centre-left Liberal Party (LPC) gov't in the vulnerable scenario of relying on cobbling together support to pass legislation on a bill-by-bill basis.

• The NDP's withdrawal does not automatically trigger a general election (due in Oct 2025 at the latest), and Singh has not confirmed that he will instruct his party to vote against the gov't in any confidence vote.
• Main opposition centre-right Conservative Party (CPC) leader Pierre Poilievre has called on Singh to "commit today to voting for a carbon tax election at the earliest confidence vote". The NDP offered the statement that "Voting non-confidence will be on the table with each and every confidence measure,"
• Without the NDP's 24 seats, the LPC holds 154 seats in the House of Commons. The combined total of the CPC, Quebec-interest Bloc Quebecois, environmentalist Greens and independents sits at 156.
• Polling shows the Conservatives with a large and consistent lead of ~15-20% over the LPC. If reflected in an election this would almost certainly translate into a sizeable CPC majority.
• Poilievre garnered market interest when running for the CPC leadership in 2022 by threatening to remove BoC Governor Tiff Macklem for being an "ATM" for Trudeau's deficit spending. He has been quieter on the prospect recently, but any snap election campaign could bring the issue back into focus.

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average