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CANADA: Trudeau Survives 3rd Confidence Vote Despite BQ Backing Ouster

CANADA
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority gov't survived a third confidence vote since September on 9 December, with the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) voting alongside Trudeau's centre-left Liberals to keep the PM in place. 

  • The motion, brought by the main opposition centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), fell short by a margin of 180-152 votes. This compares to a margin of 211-120 in the gov'ts favour in the September vote and 207-121 in October.
  • The key shift this time was the regional separatist Bloc Quebecois (BQ) and its 33 MPs voting for the gov'ts removal after previously backing Trudeau in September and October.
  • The NDP could begin to seek greater concessions from the Trudeau gov't in an effort to ensure its continued support in any confidence motions, although it should be noted that a collapse in the Trudeau gov't could damage the NDP's prospects as well.
  • Opinion polling shows the NDP, currently the fourth-largest in the Commons, only narrowly trailing the Liberals and exceeding its 2021 election vote share. However, with the Conservatives polling in excess of 40%, a majority for Leader of the Opposition Pierre Poilievre's party is seen as a strong likelihood at the next election.
  • In this scenario, the NDP would have no impact on gov't business, whereas in the current situation, Jagmeet Singh's party may be able to secure further concessions that could further boost NDP support. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority gov't survived a third confidence vote since September on 9 December, with the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) voting alongside Trudeau's centre-left Liberals to keep the PM in place. 

  • The motion, brought by the main opposition centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), fell short by a margin of 180-152 votes. This compares to a margin of 211-120 in the gov'ts favour in the September vote and 207-121 in October.
  • The key shift this time was the regional separatist Bloc Quebecois (BQ) and its 33 MPs voting for the gov'ts removal after previously backing Trudeau in September and October.
  • The NDP could begin to seek greater concessions from the Trudeau gov't in an effort to ensure its continued support in any confidence motions, although it should be noted that a collapse in the Trudeau gov't could damage the NDP's prospects as well.
  • Opinion polling shows the NDP, currently the fourth-largest in the Commons, only narrowly trailing the Liberals and exceeding its 2021 election vote share. However, with the Conservatives polling in excess of 40%, a majority for Leader of the Opposition Pierre Poilievre's party is seen as a strong likelihood at the next election.
  • In this scenario, the NDP would have no impact on gov't business, whereas in the current situation, Jagmeet Singh's party may be able to secure further concessions that could further boost NDP support. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Keep reading...Show less