Free Trial

Trump Favourite For GOP Nomination As DeSantis Prepares Campaign Launch


Betting markets continue to see former President Donald Trump as favourite to take the Republican presidential nomination as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) prepares to formally launch his White House bid.

  • According to Smarkets, Trump has a 65.7% implied probability of taking the Republican nomination compared to DeSantis at 25%.
  • DeSantis, who, has failed to make inroads into Trump's base with attacks on Trump's has launched a new strategy to differentiate himself from Trump, arguing that term-limited Trump would be in a diminished position to increase the conservative majority on the Supreme Court.
  • DeSantis said yesterday: “I think if you look over, you know, the next two presidential terms, there is a good chance that you could be called upon to seek replacements for Justice Clarence Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito,” adding that he could be in a position to replace liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor (68) if he served two terms.
  • Reuters reports that DeSantis is expected to file formal paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on Thursday 25 May.

Figure 1: 2024 Republican Primary Winner

Source: Smarkets

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.