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Trump Has Slight Edge Over Biden With RFK Confirmed On Ballot

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A new Fox News poll has found former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over President Biden in the critical swing state Michigan, when surveyed in a five-way matchup with Robert F Kennedy Jr and other third-party candidates.

  • RFK's campaign confirmed yesterday that he had gained ballot access in Michigan. Later in the day, more than a dozen members of the Kennedy family delivered a personal rebuke to RFK by endorsing President Biden’s re-election bid.
  • Axios notes: “Kennedy had already officially qualified to appear on the presidential ballot in Utah and has collected enough signatures to appear on the ballots in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, Iowa and Nebraska, according to his campaign.”
  • Fox notes that, "Trump’s [Michigan] advantage is mainly due to a 19-point lead among men. He is also the favorite among White men without a college degree (by 33 points), rural voters (+23), voters under age 35 (+16), and White voters (+13)."
  • Fox adds that, "Biden’s best groups include Black voters (+56), urban voters (+27), suburban women (+21), and voters ages 65 and over (+14)... Voters living in union households go for Biden by 12 points, while the much larger non-union segment backs Trump by 7."
  • Polymarket gives Biden a 56% implied probability of winning Michigan, likely pricing in Biden recapturing much of his progressive alliance as the election draws closer.

Figure 1: “If the presidential election were today, how would you vote if the candidates were:,” Michigan

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A new Fox News poll has found former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over President Biden in the critical swing state Michigan, when surveyed in a five-way matchup with Robert F Kennedy Jr and other third-party candidates.

  • RFK's campaign confirmed yesterday that he had gained ballot access in Michigan. Later in the day, more than a dozen members of the Kennedy family delivered a personal rebuke to RFK by endorsing President Biden’s re-election bid.
  • Axios notes: “Kennedy had already officially qualified to appear on the presidential ballot in Utah and has collected enough signatures to appear on the ballots in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, Iowa and Nebraska, according to his campaign.”
  • Fox notes that, "Trump’s [Michigan] advantage is mainly due to a 19-point lead among men. He is also the favorite among White men without a college degree (by 33 points), rural voters (+23), voters under age 35 (+16), and White voters (+13)."
  • Fox adds that, "Biden’s best groups include Black voters (+56), urban voters (+27), suburban women (+21), and voters ages 65 and over (+14)... Voters living in union households go for Biden by 12 points, while the much larger non-union segment backs Trump by 7."
  • Polymarket gives Biden a 56% implied probability of winning Michigan, likely pricing in Biden recapturing much of his progressive alliance as the election draws closer.

Figure 1: “If the presidential election were today, how would you vote if the candidates were:,” Michigan

Keep reading...Show less