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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
The indictment of former President Donald Trump by a grand jury in New York on 30 March has had little-to-no impact on the political betting markets' implied probability of his chances of regaining the presidency in the 2024 election. According to data from Smarkets, Trump's implied probability of winning in 2024 actually increased marginally in the wake of his indictment, going from 24.4% to 25.3%. Meanwhile, Predictit data showed his implied probability of winning falling from 29% to 28% at the time of writing.
- The indictment will not damage Trump's popularity among his base, which remains one of the most committed political forces in modern US politics. However, it does raise the prospect of the wider GOP re-assessing Trump's suitability to run for office once again. At present only committed opponents to Trump within the Republican party have said the indictment must mean his withdrawal from the race.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Winning 2024 Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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