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Trump Legal Problems May Cause Down Ballot Problems For GOP In 2024

US

A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted after the news of Donald Trump's criminal indictment shows that “Republicans continue to support Donald Trump as their favorite candidate for the 2024 presidential primary.”

  • Reuters: “While large majorities may find many accusations against Trump to be believable, many Americans also say the criminal indictment of Donald Trump is politically motivated, unchanged from last wave.”
  • Rollcall warns that although Trump may be initially bolstered in the Republican primary, Trump's indictment may create down ballot problems for the GOP in 2024.
  • Rollcall: “The political fallout from Trump’s legal problems could reach beyond his own candidacy. Because of a high correlation between presidential results and House and Senate outcomes, if Trump struggles to match his 2016 or 2020 performances because of legal problems, then Republicans will have a harder-than-usual time of winning the Senate majority and may lose the House majority.”

Figure 1: Republican Primary Voting Intention and 2024 General Election

Source: Reuters/IPSOS

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